The science, technology and economics of running Europe without oil were the focus of the 9th annual lecture by the European Parliament's Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) unit on Tuesday. Speakers set out various options, from fleets of electric cars with changeable batteries, to replacing oil with methanol, but agreed that there is no single answer and that all possibilities should be seriously considered.
Vice-President responsible for STOA Silvana Koch-Mehrin (ALDE, DE), opened the event by stressing the huge potential benefits of changing from conventional, internal combustion engine vehicles, to electric cars which at present account for a negligible share of the European market. Electric demonstrator cars were on show outside Parliament's Brussels building for the day.
STOA Chairman Paul Rübig (EPP, AT), advocated stepping up efforts to improve energy efficiency and rethinking the alternatives to oil. He made a case for eco-efficient transport, sustainable energy sources and a social network that embraces ethics and promotes co-operation among citizens.
Internal market committee chair Malcolm Harbour (ECR, UK), called for a thorough assessment of oil use and possible alternatives in EU Member States. They should exchange their information and best practices on this issue, but also do more to support new, start-up technologies and entrepreneurs through public procurement, he said.
Switch to non-oil personal transport in less than a decade?
Shai Agassi, CEO of the Better Place company, which will operate battery recharging networks and swapping stations in Israel and Denmark early in 2011, was certain that Europe will switch to electric cars in less then ten years, because oil is getting ever more expensive, while each new generation of batteries is cheaper and more efficient than the previous ones.
"Consumers will embrace electric cars when they offer them the same convenience, but are as cheap to buy as a 3-year old petrol car and cost the same to run per kilometre," said Mr Agassi, adding that the problem of the relatively short range of electric cars would be solved by setting up networks of recharge/exchange points. He estimated that "the price of setting up such a network in a given country or a continent is equivalent to only 6 days of its costs on gasoline".
He also urged Europe's legislators to move faster in this area, because China "is already in its rear view mirror and about to overtake", thanks to "centralised decision-making and large economies of scale".
"Anthropocene": the geological epoch of mankind
Winner of the 1995 Nobel Prize for chemistry, Dr Paul Crutzen of the Max Planck Institute, listed the effects human development in the 20th century. Population grew fourfold, urban areas tenfold, industrial output 40 times and energy use 16 times. Because of this, manmade emissions of SO2 are twice the sum of natural ones, while greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have also increased dramatically: CO2 by 40% and methane by more than 100%, he said.
"Mankind opened a new geological epoch with the industrial era: the 'anthropocene' and we are clearly and deliberately affecting the climate with our actions", he said, arguing that "we should reduce CO2 output by 40% and nitrous oxides by 70 to 80%", through energy savings and increased use of renewable energy sources.
Replying to question about the possibility of "geo-engineering" to cool the climate by depositing sulphur, he said that this was not necessary yet, but that the option of doing so should be researched as a matter of urgency.
Methanol: an ideal substitute for fossil fuels?
Winner of the 1994 Nobel Prize for chemistry Professor George Oláh, gave a video-conference presentation from the University of Sourthern California about the "methanol economy", as a feasible alternative to dependence on oil, natural gas and coal. When burned, those hydrocarbons produce CO2 which should be captured and used to transform methane into methanol, a very versatile fuel, that can substitute for petrol and diesel, he said.
Producing methanol industrially from hydrocarbons takes a lot of energy, but some countries, especially China, India and Indonesia are taking this course because they have large coal reserves, he explained, noting that China alone now produces more methanol than the entire world output in 2008 and plans to build 100 new plants. Professor Oláh advised Europe to make better use of its geothermal sources and off-peak electricity to run methanol production plants, like the experimental one that came on stream in Iceland a year ago.
Bron: Europees Parlement